Results vs Predictions

9
Analyzed
55.6%
Outcome Accuracy
0.516
Mean Brier Score
0.91
Goal MAE

Model Calibration

A perfectly calibrated model follows the dashed diagonal.

😲 Biggest Surprises

Canada 1–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina

Draw — Model gave 14.3%

😲

Brazil 1–1 Morocco

Draw — Model gave 24.5%

😲

Qatar 1–1 Switzerland

Draw — Model gave 25.5%

😲

Haiti 0–1 Scotland

Away Win — Model gave 27.9%

😲

United States 4–1 Paraguay

Home Win — Model gave 51.6%

😲
✅
Germany 7–1 Curaçao

Group E - Matchday 1 · 2026-06-14

ACTUAL

7–1

Home Win

|

PREDICTED

2.8–0.8

Home Win

Home Winactualpredicted
79.7%
Draw
13.4%
Away Win
6.9%

Scoreline Distribution

✅
Australia 2–0 Türkiye

Group D - Matchday 1 · 2026-06-14

ACTUAL

2–0

Home Win

|

PREDICTED

3.0–0.5

Home Win

Home Winactualpredicted
87.7%
Draw
9.4%
Away Win
2.9%

Scoreline Distribution

❌
Haiti 0–1 Scotland

Group C - Matchday 1 · 2026-06-14

ACTUAL

0–1

Away Win

|

PREDICTED

1.7–1.3

Home Win

Home Winpredicted
47.3%
Draw
24.8%
Away Winactual
27.9%

Scoreline Distribution

❌
Brazil 1–1 Morocco

Group C - Matchday 1 · 2026-06-13

ACTUAL

1–1

Draw

|

PREDICTED

1.6–0.5

Home Win

Home Winpredicted
65.5%
Drawactual
24.5%
Away Win
10.0%

Scoreline Distribution

❌
Qatar 1–1 Switzerland

Group B - Matchday 1 · 2026-06-13

ACTUAL

1–1

Draw

|

PREDICTED

1.2–1.6

Away Win

Home Win
26.8%
Drawactual
25.5%
Away Winpredicted
47.7%

Scoreline Distribution

✅
United States 4–1 Paraguay

Group D - Matchday 1 · 2026-06-13

ACTUAL

4–1

Home Win

|

PREDICTED

1.5–0.9

Home Win

Home Winactualpredicted
51.6%
Draw
27.3%
Away Win
21.1%

Scoreline Distribution

❌
Canada 1–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina

Group B - Matchday 1 · 2026-06-12

ACTUAL

1–1

Draw

|

PREDICTED

2.6–0.6

Home Win

Home Winpredicted
79.6%
Drawactual
14.3%
Away Win
6.1%

Scoreline Distribution

✅
South Korea 2–1 Czechia

Group A - Matchday 1 · 2026-06-12

ACTUAL

2–1

Home Win

|

PREDICTED

3.0–0.5

Home Win

Home Winactualpredicted
85.6%
Draw
10.6%
Away Win
3.8%

Scoreline Distribution

✅
Mexico 2–0 South Africa

Group A - Matchday 1 · 2026-06-11

ACTUAL

2–0

Home Win

|

PREDICTED

2.0–0.5

Home Win

Home Winactualpredicted
71.5%
Draw
20.0%
Away Win
8.5%

Scoreline Distribution