Championship Odds

Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 tournament runs

1Argentina

18.4%

2Japan

12.2%

3Mexico

8.8%

4Switzerland

7.0%

5Morocco

5.8%

6Portugal

4.8%

7Belgium

4.7%

8England

4.3%

9Brazil

3.8%

10Algeria

3.4%

11Germany

3.2%

12Ecuador

3.1%

13France

2.9%

14Spain

2.5%

15Ivory Coast

2.5%

16Paraguay

2.2%

17Canada

2.2%

18Netherlands

1.8%

19Australia

1.7%

20Colombia

0.87%

21Scotland

0.80%

22Egypt

0.67%

23Uruguay

0.57%

24South Korea

0.43%

25Iran

0.40%

26Senegal

0.33%

27Croatia

0.30%

28United States

0.23%

29Saudi Arabia

0.10%

Simulated using Model90 Match Engine (Dixon-Coles Poisson model). Probabilities reflect projected group outcomes and simulated knockout bracket paths. Not a guarantee of results.